A fable for our time.

The Great Race

One of the most discussed topics among my readers is the future of the human species under the pressure of uncontrolled population growth. The ratio of the amount of food available per capita is decreasing annually despite vast advances in food production during recent decades. Population growth has outrun these advances, and the distribution of the food supply makes it more available in developed countries where population is not growing as rapidly. The amount of the earth's surface which is suitable for cultivation is finite, and is being steadily reduced by human habitation, diversion to non-agricultural uses, damage and destruction. These trends stimulated some interesting speculation among some of my scientist friends and I about what would be the limits of food production if all paved land was to be reclaimed for agriculture, the deserts were to be restored to green, and organic farming would gradually reduce the salinity and pollution in our seas and water resources. Would the food per capita keep up with the population? Mathematically the answer is no. Once maximum production is reached, the food per capita will begin to decline. Unless we, the "intelligent" masters of the earth impose population controls, starvation, disasters or plagues may do so for us. The present population of our planet is estimated to be 6 to 7 billion and to double within the next two decades. We agreed that the number that would allow survivability under acceptable living conditions does not exceed the present. The implications of that are immense. We should be thinking, and doing something about it now.

Balance of Power-part two.

Until 9/11 national power was expressed through the muzzles of guns. With the obscenely expensive interventions into the mid-East all that changed. Power for the last decade has resided in economies. The world leaders today are characterized by rapid economic growth--with highly trained and educated hordes of manpower, willing to work under disciplined conditions, for modest wages. They have scant interest in workers rights. They have new and advanced production facilities, access to the raw materials of the less developed world, and tight control of their currencies. In addition they are willing to extend credit on easy terms, even to financially
stressed countries such as ours.
By transferring our industrial base to the Asian giants, we traded conomic power for
miltary dominance, and set our feet firmly on the road to second class national
status. Now that military power of the traditional variety no longer works in the asymmetric warfare common today, we find we have made a fool's bargain and must work
our way back to fiscal health. Slashing sll government programs across the board won't do it. It requires sensible growth policies designed and administered by
experienced economists, not rabble rousing politicians. The sooner we get at it the better our chances for success.

Peace in the Holy Land

If the Palestinians could be given the hope of a better, more prosperous, healthier life while dwelling on this earthly realm, perhaps the zeal of the terrorists to get to paradise by killing Israelis and Westerners, might cool. Israel is in a position to help make that a reality for the Palestinians, but only if they abandon their dream of wiping Israel off the world map, and give up terrorism as an instrument of policy.

As with many Arab states, the controlling oligarchy has failed to improve the lives of their subjects. Many motives---desire to maintain control, rejection of modernity, suppression of women, corruption, greed and religious zealotry can be cited for that failure. Israel is a roaring success, politically, economically and socially. That alone is enough to feed the Arab hatred of a successful, non Muslim state in their midst. If such attitudes were changed, Israel could play a significant role in improving the lot of their Palestinian neighbors.

The economy of the Palestinian territories is based on agriculture, of a relatively primitive form. It competes with the highly advanced Israeli agriculture. However, that is not the reason for their poverty. Lack of access to the Israeli market, and ports, because of border closings for security concerns, is the main cause.

If the Arabs would accept the reality of Israel, and coexistence as the future, Israel could become the engine of a powerful revival of the Palestinian people, in a thriving state, as part of a natural regional economic entity. The Israelis would have to open their market to Palestinian agricultural products. They would need to provide technical assistance to modernize farming methods, improve roads and water supply to bring the Palestinian farmers up to Israeli standards. To compensate for the impact of food imports Israel would concentrate on the export market, where it already has a major presence.

For some period certain, perhaps twenty years, Israel would pledge to extend to the Palestinian state, any improvements it makes to its infrastructure so that the viability of that state is bolstered. In the absence of terror Israel could open its borders and its impressive medical care facilities to Palestinians. During that twenty years Israel, together with the international community, could assist in building infrastructure, clinics, hospitals, and schools in the Palestinian state, so that it will be able to offer its citizens the quality of life found in its neighbor.

The cost to Israel for the assistance it provides will be offset by the savings from reduced security requirements and from the increased trade and tourism which peace will permit.